A new normal:How traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is adapting to war

On February 28, the United States and Israel began strikes on Iran, setting off a monthslong war in the region.

Very soon after this, Iran announced it was closing the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping route through which 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas traveled.

The strait remained effectively closed, with just a fraction of pre-war traffic passing through, until an agreement between the US and Iran was reached in mid-June, allowing it to reopen, and traffic increased. But just days later, Iranian strikes on vessels using a route Tehran hadn’t authorized led to the collapse of the ceasefire and traffic dropped yet again.

Iran claims sovereignty over the strait, but the US and Gulf Arab countries disagree. This has created a complicated system of competing routes through this critical waterway.

How are ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz now?

The Strait of Hormuz is no longer simply open or closed, and ships have several options to cross this critical waterway.

Pre-war route

Through the center of the strait

Designated a «danger zone» by Iran on April 9 after mines were laid through the strait’s center.

Oman-IMO traffic separation scheme

Oman’s northern coast

Oman says passage through the strait is guaranteed under international law.

Dark or
unknown route

Unknown

Many ships switch off their tracking transponders to avoid detection.

Iran-asserted traffic separation scheme

Iran’s southern coast

Iran demands all vessels use this route and has been charging ships a fee to pass.

Before the war, around 100 vessels passed through the strait every day. This has dropped dramatically since the conflict began.

Around 20% of the world’s oil flowed through the critical waterway.
Vessels came and went freely. No single nation controlled the strait.
Once the war began, Iran announced the closure of the strait and traffic dropped dramatically, causing global oil prices to rise.
Some vessels continued using the usual pre-war route through the center of the strait.
Iranian and allied ships also started using an Iranian route, sailing along the country’s southern coast.
But many ships turned off their tracking, using an unknown or “dark route” to avoid detection.
March 22

Trump says the US has been speaking to «a top person» in Iran about a deal. Iran denies speaking to anyone from the US.

March 31

Trump claims Iran has asked the US for a ceasefire, and that he would consider it once the strait is open. Iran denies this and says it will not open the strait to enemies.

April 6

The US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire, facilitated by Pakistan ahead of peace negotiations in Islamabad.

April 11

Peace talks in Pakistan end without a deal.

April 12

The US impose a blockade of Iranian ports.

Vessels begin using the new Omani route along the south of the strait.
April 16

The US and Iran both announce that the strait is open. Traffic increases, but the next day Iran declares it closed again.

Increasing attacks cause a drop in traffic.
May 4

Iran establishes the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to manage traffic through the strait.

No vessels cross through the strait on May 7.
Iran says it coordinated the transit of 26 vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in a 24-hour timespan.
Despite the ceasefire, the US carries out “self-defense strikes” on Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the strait.
May 31

Trump tells ABC News he believes a deal to reopen the strait and extend the ceasefire with Iran is reachable “over the next week.”

June 16

The US and Iran sign a memorandum of understanding which states the strait must reopen.

Traffic starts flowing through the strait, 78 vessels transit on June 24 – the most traffic since the start of the war.
Strikes between the US and Iran begin again, after Iran struck a ship in the strait.
July 9

Trump declares the ceasefire “over.”

The waterway is effectively closed again.
Renewed US naval blockade takes effect.
Aug. 2

Iran says it is holding talks with Oman about establishing a new mechanism for shipping in the strait.

Aug. 15

The 60-day deadline since the memorandum of understanding was signed — for the US and Iran to reach a deal ending the conflict — has now passed.

Is this the new normal for the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran and Oman have long shared the waters in the Strait of Hormuz, and since 1968 vessels have traveled through a route established by the International Maritime Organization. In 1974, both countries signed an agreement at the United Nations defining the maritime boundaries in the strait.

As Iran exchanges missiles with the US and negotiates with Oman to rethink the long-established routes, shipping must adapt to this new volatile reality. What are the options for vessels trying to use the strait?

Early in the conflict, Iran designated the pre-war route a danger zone. and said it had laid mines in the waterway. Ships have still been sailing through, but it is a dangerous option.

Some ships are still taking a “dark” or unknown route to evade surveillance and attacks. This raises the risk of accidents or collisions and can void their insurance.

The Omani route was agreed upon by the International Maritime Organization, but has been rejected by Iran.

Attacks on commercial vessels since June 17Data as of Aug. 19, 2026
Source: UK Maritime Trade Operations

Ships using this route have been attacked by Iran.

New risks have caused maritime insurance premiums to skyrocket

Maritime insurance to cross the strait is currently between 7.5% and 10% of a vessel’s value — up from 0.25% before the war.

Iran says ships should only use the Iranian route and has set up the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to collect fees from vessels passing through the strait. The US has sanctioned the PGSA — meaning anyone who pays Iran to pass could potentially face future US sanctions.

Iranian control over the strait could be very lucrative

Iran has reportedly been charging tankers up to $2 million — around $1 per barrel of oil on board. Before the war, 20 million barrels of oil crossed the Strait of Hormuz every day.

The route through the Strait of Hormuz is a complicated mess of routes, mines and unknown dangers. What lies ahead for the strait is unclear.

Compartir nota:
Twitter
LinkedIn
WhatsApp
Facebook

Contenido exclusivo para socios

¿Todavía no sos socio?